Global wheat futures experienced notable downward pressure on Friday, reflecting a broad market correction following a brief resurgence earlier in the week. This downturn across major commodity exchanges underscores the persistent volatility in agricultural markets, driven by evolving supply estimates and dynamic demand metrics.
- Global wheat futures registered significant declines across major exchanges on Friday.
- Chicago (CBT), Kansas City (KCBT), and Minneapolis (MGEX) wheat contracts fell by 5 to 7 cents.
- Sovecon adjusted its Russian wheat crop estimate slightly downward to 83.3 million metric tons.
- The French soft wheat harvest reached approximately 89% completion, signaling robust regional supply.
- U.S. wheat export commitments totaled 9.571 million metric tons, exceeding the average historical pace.
Market Performance and Price Trends
Trading activity across key U.S. exchanges revealed a cohesive downward trend in wheat futures. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBT), wheat futures registered declines of 5 to 6 cents. Similarly, Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) contracts fell by 5 to 7 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat also experienced losses, with most contracts down 5 to 6 cents by midday. This broad-based decline signals a concerted market adjustment.
At the close of Friday’s trading, key contract prices reflected these market adjustments:
| Exchange/Contract | September 25 Futures | December 25 Futures |
| CBOT Wheat | $5.17 1/2 (down 5 3/4 cents) | $5.37 1/2 (down 5 cents) |
| KCBT Wheat | $5.19 1/4 (down 7 cents) | $5.39 (down 5 3/4 cents) |
| MGEX Wheat | $5.72 (down 5 3/4 cents) | $5.95 1/2 (down 5 3/4 cents) |
Global Supply Dynamics
Recent agricultural assessments present a nuanced picture regarding global wheat supply. Sovecon, a prominent analytical firm, slightly adjusted its estimate for the Russian wheat crop downward to 83.3 million metric tons (MMT) from an earlier projection of 83.6 MMT. This minor revision highlights the ongoing monitoring of production outlooks in key exporting regions. Concurrently, FranceAgriMer reported substantial progress in the French soft wheat harvest, which has reached approximately 89% completion. This advanced harvest pace points to robust regional supply within the European Union, potentially offsetting concerns from other areas.
U.S. Export Commitments and Demand Outlook
From a demand perspective, the export landscape demonstrates a degree of underlying stability despite the day’s price movements. Total U.S. wheat export commitments currently stand at 9.571 MMT. While this figure is marginally below commitments for the corresponding period in the 2020/21 marketing year, it represents 41% of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) projected total for the current marketing year. This pace notably outpaces the average historical sale pace of 39%, suggesting sustained international demand for U.S. wheat even amidst market fluctuations.
David Thompson earned his MBA from the Wharton School and spent five years managing multi-million-dollar portfolios at a leading asset management firm. He now applies that hands-on investment expertise to his writing, offering practical strategies on portfolio diversification, risk management, and long-term wealth building.