Oil price forecasts for 2025 remain largely stable, reflecting a nuanced interplay of increasing supply, evolving U.S. trade policies, and persistent geopolitical tensions. A recent Reuters poll of 37 analysts underscores this equilibrium amidst powerful opposing market forces.
- Brent crude is projected to average $67.84 per barrel in 2025, with U.S. crude (WTI) at $64.61.
- OPEC+ members plan to increase oil output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, with further boosts anticipated.
- Uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs from President Donald Trump by an August 1 deadline is impacting global oil demand.
- Geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East instability are expected to support prices through 2025.
- Global oil demand is forecast to grow by over 797,000 bpd in 2025, though a seasonal slowdown is expected in the fourth quarter.
- The second half of 2025 could see a price decrease driven by both slower demand growth and rising supply.
Price Outlook and Market Dynamics
Brent crude is anticipated to average $67.84 per barrel in 2025, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected at $64.61, figures that largely align with prior estimations. Looking further ahead, a modest downward trend is expected into 2026, with Brent forecast to reach $62.98 by the second quarter. For context, current year-to-date averages stand at approximately $70.60 for Brent and $67.46 for WTI, according to LSEG data.
This outlook is significantly shaped by a confluence of supply-side increases and demand-side uncertainties. A critical factor on the supply front is the rising output from eight OPEC+ members, with an agreed increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, and further boosts anticipated. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, with an August 1 deadline looming, is impacting the demand side of the equation. As NORD/LB analyst Thomas Wybierek succinctly puts it, “Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff plans affect markets and the demand side. The other side of the coin is the rising supply given by OPEC+ alliance. So the mismatch between supply and demand remains.” New tariffs, if implemented, could indeed curb global economic growth and, consequently, oil demand, exacerbating this potential mismatch.
Geopolitical Influences and Future Trajectory
Beyond the immediate supply-demand calculus, persistent geopolitical tensions are expected to provide a floor for oil prices through 2025. Ongoing conflicts, notably the Russia-Ukraine war and instability across the Middle East, continue to influence market sentiment. Cyrus De La Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, highlights that these factors will “help to keep Brent in the upper $60s rather than the low $60s as we head into 2026,” indicating their supportive role.
While the Reuters poll forecasts robust global oil demand growth of over 797,000 bpd in 2025, analysts also anticipate a seasonal slowdown in the fourth quarter. This anticipated deceleration in demand, coupled with the projected increase in OPEC+ supply, raises the specter of market oversupply. Moutaz Altaghlibi of ABN AMRO reinforces this view, predicting a “decrease in the second half of 2025, driven by both slower demand growth and rising supply,” pointing towards a potentially challenging trajectory as the year progresses.
Jonathan Reed received his MA in Journalism from Columbia University and has reported on corporate governance and leadership for major business magazines. His coverage focuses on executive decision-making, startup innovation, and the evolving role of technology in driving business growth.