Public confidence in Social Security, a foundational pillar of American retirement planning for nearly nine decades, is notably diminishing, particularly among younger demographics. A recent AARP report highlights a significant erosion of trust in the program’s long-term future, a trend that underscores intensifying concerns about its financial stability and viability amid shifting demographics and economic pressures.
- Overall American confidence in Social Security decreased from 43% in 2020 to 36% in 2025, the lowest level since 2010.
- Only 25% of respondents aged 18 to 49 express confidence in the program, compared to 48% of those 50 and older.
- Retiree reliance on Social Security increased from 51% in 2005 to 65% in 2025.
- Social Security trust funds are projected by trustees to be depleted by 2034, leading to an estimated 19% benefit reduction.
- The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) suggests the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could accelerate depletion to late 2032, potentially causing a 24% benefit cut for some retirees by 2033.
Erosion of Public Confidence and Generational Divides
The AARP survey, conducted in anticipation of Social Security’s 90th anniversary, reveals a nationwide decline in confidence. Overall American trust in the program has fallen from 43% in 2020 to 36% in 2025. This represents the lowest confidence level recorded since 2010, when it stood at 35%, signaling persistent apprehension surrounding this crucial social safety net.
A significant generational divergence in trust is particularly evident. Only 25% of respondents aged 18 to 49 expressed confidence in Social Security’s future, a stark contrast to the 48% confidence level seen among those 50 and older. Simultaneously, the dependence of retirees on Social Security has intensified over the past two decades. The proportion of retirees reporting substantial reliance on the program rose from 51% in 2005 to 65% in 2025, while the share of those not relying on it saw only a marginal increase from 10% to 13% over the same period.
Political affiliation also exhibits a correlation with confidence levels. The AARP survey revealed that 44% of Republicans expressed confidence, compared to 32% of Democrats and 30% of independents. Historically, these confidence levels have fluctuated, often aligning with the political party occupying the White House. Broader anxieties regarding the program’s future accessibility are pervasive, with approximately 80% of respondents expressing apprehension that Social Security might not be available when they need it in retirement. Among those lacking confidence, 31% attributed their distrust to the government’s perceived inability to honor its commitments, while 27% believed the program’s funds were being depleted.
Projections of Insolvency and Potential Benefit Adjustments
These declining confidence levels are consistent with recent financial assessments of the program. A report from the Social Security trustees projected that the primary trust funds would be depleted by 2034. At this juncture, benefits would automatically be reduced by an estimated 19% to align with incoming payroll tax receipts. This anticipated reduction poses a substantial financial challenge for both current and future beneficiaries.
Further analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) suggests that the insolvency date could arrive even sooner. Their projections indicate that provisions within the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which includes temporary enhanced standard deductions impacting seniors’ tax liability, could accelerate the trust fund’s depletion to late 2032. Should this expedited timeline materialize, individuals reaching full retirement age at the beginning of 2033 could face an automatic 24% reduction in their Social Security benefits.
Despite these projections and ongoing concerns, Social Security has consistently met its payment obligations throughout its history. As AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan observed, “More than 69 million Americans rely on Social Security today, and as America ages, we expect at least 13 million more people to rely on it by 2035.” The persistent challenge involves addressing the program’s long-term financial stability to both reassure a skeptical public and secure vital benefits for an increasing number of beneficiaries.
David Thompson earned his MBA from the Wharton School and spent five years managing multi-million-dollar portfolios at a leading asset management firm. He now applies that hands-on investment expertise to his writing, offering practical strategies on portfolio diversification, risk management, and long-term wealth building.