Study: 180 firms’ CO2 emissions caused most global heat waves

A landmark study published in the journal Nature has illuminated the concentrated accountability for a substantial portion of global heat waves, directly attributing them to a limited number of major industrial producers. This research fundamentally shifts the discourse on climate responsibility, moving beyond general human impact to pinpoint specific corporate and national entities.

The investigation, spanning 213 heat waves from 2000 to 2023, meticulously traced emissions from 180 major cement, oil, and gas producers. This analysis found that these entities—encompassing publicly traded and state-owned companies, alongside several nations—account for a staggering 57% of all carbon dioxide emissions between 1850 and 2023. Sonia Seneviratne, a climate professor at ETH Zurich and a contributor to the study, emphasized the profound implication of such concentrated responsibility: “It just shows that it’s not that many actors … who are responsible for a very strong fraction of all emissions.”

Drawing data from a widely used global disaster repository, the research determined that global warming exacerbated all 213 heat waves under scrutiny. Crucially, 55 of these events were deemed 10,000 times more likely to have occurred than in a pre-industrial era, effectively meaning they “would have been virtually impossible” without human-induced climate change. The human toll of these events is significant; Professor Seneviratne recalled the 2022 European heat waves, linked to tens of thousands of deaths, as a stark example of their grave consequences.

The scientific methodology employed builds upon a well-established field known as attribution science, which leverages sophisticated computational models and historical weather data to establish links between extreme weather and anthropogenic pollutants. While many attribution studies quantify climate change’s influence on specific events, this Nature study distinguishes itself by specifically focusing on the proportional contribution of cement and fossil fuel producers to these heat waves. Chris Callahan, an Indiana University climate scientist who reviewed the study, affirmed its appropriateness and high quality, noting that the field itself has matured over two decades.

The findings carry significant implications for legal and economic accountability. Globally, numerous lawsuits have been initiated against fossil fuel companies by various parties, including state governments, seeking to assign responsibility for climate-related damages. States like Vermont and New York have already enacted legislation targeting fossil fuel companies for their emissions. Callahan underscored the paradigm shift: “For a while, it was argued that any individual contributor to climate change was making too small or too diffuse a contribution to ever be linked to any particular impact. And this emerging science, both this paper and others, is showing that that’s not true.” Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth College climate scientist, further emphasized the future relevance: “As we contend with these losses, the assessment of who or what’s responsible is going to become really important… I think there are some really appropriate questions, like who pays to recoup our losses, given that we’re all being damaged by it.” This study therefore provides critical data for understanding the origins of these hazards and for guiding future mitigation and compensatory frameworks.